Deaths from extreme heat are projected to rise sharply in Europe, far outpacing an expected slowdown in cold-related deaths, according to new estimates from European Commission researchers. Currently, cold weather causes the majority of temperature-related deaths in Europe, but extreme heat will become an increasingly lethal challenge, particularly in southern Europe and areas with more elderly people. The analysis assumed a 3°C increase in global warming by 2100, which is double the 1.5°C goal set by the Paris Agreement.
The researchers found that between 1991 and 2020, there were about 364,000 cold-related deaths and 44,000 heat-related deaths per year across Europe, with regional disparities expected to grow. Hotspots where people will be worst affected are identified in the study, with Spain, Italy, Greece, and parts of France expected to see a significant rise in heat-related deaths.
The study calls for more targeted policies to protect areas and members of society most at risk from temperature extremes. UN Secretary-General António Guterres has called for international cooperation to address extreme heat, with a focus on vulnerable groups and investment in renewable energy. Policy interventions to adapt to climate change have saved thousands of lives, but more must be done to prevent preventable deaths.
Extreme heat poses health risks beyond death, including a higher risk of miscarriage for women working in extreme heat and exacerbating mental illness. Indirect impacts of extreme heat include wildfires, agricultural failure, and other environmental and infrastructure problems, which will have knock-on effects on people’s lives.
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